Every year, the latest flu makes the rounds, causes hundreds of millions to feel ill, and kills about half a million more due to other complications that the flu helps bring, like pneumonia. Over the past year, the coronavirus seems to have done the same and on a similar or even smaller scale. Yet the reaction of governments has been far beyond what has been tried in the past and their misguided attempts to defeat this current virus don’t seem to have been worth it or right in any way. Perhaps we should look at what these unimpressive measures have cost us, and think about a new (but actually old) approach.
Let’s Ask 1957
Many viruses seem to run their course and disappear. For instance, the virus that caused the Spanish Flu no longer exists; avian flu stopped showing up in 2009; and all flu viruses that were around more than 120 years ago have gone extinct. In the past, governments have let influenza or other pandemic crises run their course, as they did in 1957. (This of course does not mean that people and companies should do nothing) During that year, the US experienced a wave of influenza that spread rapidly, infected 25% of the population, and increased the rate of natural deaths by up to 36%.
But the government understood that it was not their duty to interfere with people’s freedom and self-responsibility and they initiated no countermeasures. After letting the disease run its course, the flu outbreak ended around the start of 1958, but without the drastic economic impact of lockdowns, surveillance, etc.
At present, the US infection rate is about 5%. So could it be that COVID 19 is just another type of virus like the flu?
Fatality Rates
Each year, it is estimated that influenza kills approximately 0.1% of those that it infects. Definite numbers are difficult to find because in the US, for example, deaths from the flu don’t need to be reported, so infection rates are extrapolated from samples, while fatality reports can take more than a year to be recorded.
In comparison, COVID deaths are definitely being reported, even to an alarming and inaccurate manner. It is currently estimated at approximately 3% of those infected, but it is very likely that the actual number of infections is much higher than thought and that the true reason for many deaths is not in itself COVID 19. Studies indicate that as many as 81% of COVID carriers are asymptomatic, and lots of these people are not reported as ill, thus most of the time not even tested for the virus. Antibody testing has shown that real infection is 10-50 times higher than currently reported. The higher the actual rate of infection, the lower the rate of fatality is. So it could very probably be that the fatality rates of COVID and the “average” influenzas are similar.
Seasonality
Intense scrutiny highlights the fact that COVID doesn’t fluctuate according to the seasons. But then again, neither does the flu. The “flu season” doesn’t really exist in a way that it totally disappears during the summer, instead, people can catch the flu at any time throughout the year. The infection rates vary according to the time of year for many reasons, and so the rate of contagion is higher during the winter; these include the fact that, during the winter, people spend more time indoors, where transmission is easier, and similarly, a reduction in ultraviolet radiation and a decrease in temperature both allow the exposed virus (on a doorknob, for example) to live longer, yet still many suffer from the flu during the summer. So too COVID infection exists year-round, though during the winter the infection rate increases.
Not Worth It
So we’ve seen that flu types have come and gone, and that COVID 19 is not an exception in terms of seasonality. This lends more weight to the idea that restrictive measures should be reconsidered. Let’s evaluate two of the main control measures that have been used against COVID 19: lockdowns and surveillance.
At one point, a third of the global population was on lockdown. The shoppers among them generally could not shop and the employees among them often could not work. The UN projects that COVID will result in a global income reduction of $2 trillion, while in addition, influencing and increasing the rate of domestic violence, suicides and homicides by up to 30%.
To top it off, all that is being done will not even be effective as even the WHO admits, “we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled”. By the end of March 2020, 170 countries had closed their borders and 140 countries had instituted six or more containment measures. There were approximately 900,000 cases of infection reported at the time, and with these measures, it was expected that global COVID infections would reach 9 million. However, after these lockdowns took place, the situation became even worse than projected. Global active COVID cases are now more than 40 times what they were in March, despite continuing lockdowns and other controls that have been implemented around the world while economic and cultural disaster has with no question befallen most. Obviously, the lockdowns did not do their intended job nor could they have.
Keeping a covert eye on people has also been problematic. Government surveillance of individuals, usually through cell signal tracking, was at first used to trace where an infected person had been in order to quarantine those who were nearby. Then, tracing was used to check that people under quarantine were actually staying at home. To accomplish these actions, it was necessary for many countries to amend or suspend privacy laws, and it was assumed that everything would go back to normal once the COVID crisis had ended.
But when will it end? And what ‘pandemic’ or additional ‘disaster’ will trigger governments to implement these infringements again? It appears that, even after taking a vaccine, people are still advised to maintain regular anti-coronavirus measures, such as refraining from travel, because widespread inoculations will be necessary for things to return to normal. Furthermore, COVID 19 has mutated, and it’s still not clear what this means – although greater transmissibility is possible.
Therefore, we can expect surveillance measures to continue for a while, along with various abuses that they spawn by opportunistic bad actors who, often as individuals, exploit the situation. This includes everything from gathering information on political opponents to blackmail schemes and even LOVEINT.
Newer is Not Always Better
We’ve seen that many of the steps taken against COVID have, at best, hurt us, while others have increased the rate of death by suicide and homicide, increase domestic violence, thrown many to an economic crisis they will not be able to get out of and much more. In comparison, previous pandemics have simply been allowed to run their course. Therefore, perhaps it’s time to treat this pandemic like any other flu. By holding people accountable for their own actions and encouraging them to act in a moral and ethical way, we can overcome this pandemic and should reduce the need for government regulations that only seem to make the situation worse.
As published on LinkedIn.
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